I might vote for Cynthia McKinney just for the sake of voting closer to my actual views, if I thought Obama really couldn’t win Louisiana. But call me an Obamaholic, Field Negro. I won’t mind, I was a Kucinich voter originally. Now, however, I am in enough denial about the possibility of a McCain victory that I believe Obama can win Louisiana.
I have seen polls saying Louisiana will go 62-38 and also 55-45 for McCain. Here is why I disagree. Louisiana is the second most African-American state in the Union (after Mississippi), and the electorate is about 30% Black. When I phone banked against David Duke in the early nineties, I had the easy job of calling Black Democrats, reminding them to vote, and asking whether they needed transportation to the polls. I started phoning about 9 AM and everyone had already voted. I believe this turnout can be reproduced, in Obama’s favor.
Let us assume that sews up 29% of the popular vote. Then we need another 22%, coming from the remaining 70% of the electorate. If just over 30% of this electorate votes for Obama, there are the 22%. That would be just over 3 in 10 of white-and-other voters.
Do you not think it is possible? (Will you check my math, Angry Professor?)
Axé.
coldhearted scientist وداد 
Crossing my fingers. And isn’t it strange that it’s African American citizens who will save us?
Yes – I guess I’ll be phone banking or something. Saved by African Americans, this keeps happening. First they build a lot of buildings and grow food, tend the sick and so on, do all manner of work. Then they sign up to fight for the U.S.A. Then they go crusading to improve the Constitution to the benefit of the many. Now they will help rescue us from the folly of McCain / Palin.
Given what they’ve been through you’d think they’d smash the state but no, they make mega contributions and write books. One can theorize about that in various ways but my subjective reaction is that as a group they must have a higher level of culture and civilization than we do.
I like the way you think!
and you can dance to it! arriba! arriba!
the new poll by the washington post/abc news just came out – looks good!
OOOH, 52-43! 🙂
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/24/post_poll_shows_challenge_for.html
yeah!
I’ve been wondering today, too, if the polls are correct about Louisiana. Since I teach many white, freshman, first-generation college students from rural areas in Louisiana, I often feel that I have a clear sense of how an election will go. A Bush victory in Louisiana was clear before the 2000 and 2004 elections, but I’m hearing *no* pro-McCain sentiment in my classes now. I also wonder how Katrina figures in among otherwise Republican voters in Louisiana. I wonder if the pollsters are actually calling people or if they’re simply relying on the traditional redness of Louisiana in their projections?
I heard that the polls don’t often reflect younger voters or newly registered voters. The younger voters tend to have only cell phones – and often they are left out of the polling.
Well not many of my students are McCainites, either – certainly fewer Republican sentiments than in 2000 or 2004. But many also don’t believe in voting, hence the problem.
I hear you. I hope that my students are at least relating the views of those in their families who do, maybe, vote. Now that I write this, I realize it’s incredibly optimistic.
One of my most vocal ones isn’t registered to vote and thinks the deadline is mid October. I told him it was 30 days ahead and he was surprised.
I am told again that Louisiana will go for McCain and the African Americans will not turn out en masse. However this article agrees with me:
http://www.thetexasblue.com/eight-states-where-african-american-vote-will-change-race
I am going to phone bank for Obama on Saturday.